Here’s the thing about bubbles - when people believe that collapse is imminent, they hold back and don’t dive in. It is only when the overwhelming majority believe that this new thing can’t lose, is going to change the world, and that we are in a “new paradigm” where the old rules don’t matter, that the bubble has peaked and collapse is imminent. We’ve probably got another year or so before collapse. Too many people are still skeptical.
I think one thing that’s helping people hang on to delusion is the scarcity of real information. For instance, it’s prefectly possible that 2/3rds of NVIDIA GPUS purchased for data centers are just sitting in a warehouse somewhere, uninstalled. But that’s just a guess based on available data, but we can’t know for sure.
I think with Anthropic and OpenAI’s upcoming IPOs, we’re going to get a lot of information that will eventually filter through the slavish business press and into public consciousness as facts instead of opinions.
I think this bubble is a bit different and not really reliant on the general public’s view or support. They will attempt to ram this down our throats, with violence where necessary, because the more buy-in the better, but the clock is already ticking because they made promises of profit they cannot keep and when the debt comes due they will not be able to pay
They know their promises cannot be kept. They are building a surveillance state for the government. When the bubble bursts, the government will swoop in and bail them out because they are too big to fail and hand over most of these AI resources to the US government.
Here’s the thing about bubbles - when people believe that collapse is imminent, they hold back and don’t dive in. It is only when the overwhelming majority believe that this new thing can’t lose, is going to change the world, and that we are in a “new paradigm” where the old rules don’t matter, that the bubble has peaked and collapse is imminent. We’ve probably got another year or so before collapse. Too many people are still skeptical.
Timing a bubble pop is notoriously difficult.
I think one thing that’s helping people hang on to delusion is the scarcity of real information. For instance, it’s prefectly possible that 2/3rds of NVIDIA GPUS purchased for data centers are just sitting in a warehouse somewhere, uninstalled. But that’s just a guess based on available data, but we can’t know for sure.
I think with Anthropic and OpenAI’s upcoming IPOs, we’re going to get a lot of information that will eventually filter through the slavish business press and into public consciousness as facts instead of opinions.
I think this bubble is a bit different and not really reliant on the general public’s view or support. They will attempt to ram this down our throats, with violence where necessary, because the more buy-in the better, but the clock is already ticking because they made promises of profit they cannot keep and when the debt comes due they will not be able to pay
They know their promises cannot be kept. They are building a surveillance state for the government. When the bubble bursts, the government will swoop in and bail them out because they are too big to fail and hand over most of these AI resources to the US government.