Good point, still there will be a massive amount of production capacity, and not enough customers to fill that capacity, so the prices will drop fast, as competition grows to utilize as much capacity as possible, because it’s extremely expensive to shut down factories, or run factories at below capacity.
Unfortunately, memory production capacity changes vary slowly.
In spite of the drama, memory production hasn’t increased all that much, which is why there is such a RAM crisis. Maybe it will grow some before the bubble pops, but Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung aren’t stupid:
They are getting companies to sign long term (5+ year) pricing contracts. In other words, they clearly know the bubble could pop. They are already hedging their bets, and they aren’t going to put themselves in the position of massive overexpansion.
Good point, still there will be a massive amount of production capacity, and not enough customers to fill that capacity, so the prices will drop fast, as competition grows to utilize as much capacity as possible, because it’s extremely expensive to shut down factories, or run factories at below capacity.
Unfortunately, memory production capacity changes vary slowly.
In spite of the drama, memory production hasn’t increased all that much, which is why there is such a RAM crisis. Maybe it will grow some before the bubble pops, but Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung aren’t stupid:
https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/01/microns-long-term-chip-deals-jump-63-percent-as-ai-memory
They are getting companies to sign long term (5+ year) pricing contracts. In other words, they clearly know the bubble could pop. They are already hedging their bets, and they aren’t going to put themselves in the position of massive overexpansion.