Well, people aren’t really paying. Theoretically, large AI investment groups are paying. I say theoretically because as far as I understand it, they’ve mostly promised to buy the output but I don’t think have actually made good on buying it. The manufactured scarcity is being realized as increased memory costs, but the contracts are still landing even though the biggest contract may not actually be filled in the future (AI bubble). It’s why memory makers are trying to get Apple and co to commit to today’s prices for the next 3 years, because if they do and the big contract falls through, they still get their insane profit margin baked in for a bit and then can stockpile / price fix / sell through to market.
The big wrench here will be if Chinese memory fabs come online. If that big contract (AI) defaults, existing contracts are going to be very much worthless as folks would rather cancel them and fill orders at CXMT. So you may see a lot of consumer memory start filling from those fabs as they take market share while traditional players try to price fix. So the real question is, will cxmt try to capture market or play price fixing with the current cartel? My money is on market share.
Well, people aren’t really paying. Theoretically, large AI investment groups are paying. I say theoretically because as far as I understand it, they’ve mostly promised to buy the output but I don’t think have actually made good on buying it. The manufactured scarcity is being realized as increased memory costs, but the contracts are still landing even though the biggest contract may not actually be filled in the future (AI bubble). It’s why memory makers are trying to get Apple and co to commit to today’s prices for the next 3 years, because if they do and the big contract falls through, they still get their insane profit margin baked in for a bit and then can stockpile / price fix / sell through to market.
The big wrench here will be if Chinese memory fabs come online. If that big contract (AI) defaults, existing contracts are going to be very much worthless as folks would rather cancel them and fill orders at CXMT. So you may see a lot of consumer memory start filling from those fabs as they take market share while traditional players try to price fix. So the real question is, will cxmt try to capture market or play price fixing with the current cartel? My money is on market share.